×

You are using an outdated browser Internet Explorer. It does not support some functions of the site.

Recommend that you install one of the following browsers: Firefox, Opera or Chrome.

Contacts:

+7 961 270-60-01
ivdon3@bk.ru

The factorial analysis of the propulsion power demand

Abstract

The factorial analysis of the propulsion power demand

Manikovskiy A.S.

Incoming article date: 20.11.2020

Market relationships between energy producers and consumers leads to increased obligations for all market players. The problem of efficient distribution of electricity purchased on a wholesale market becomes relevant in the context of development of competition in the retail market. The prognostics of energy consumptions becomes a valuable criterion for planning the further consumers’ demands, reducing generation and transportation costs. In case of inaccurate forecasts, the company will be forced to buy or sell electrical energy at unfavorable price. The usage of multi-factor mathematical models in the prognostics makes it possible to make a highly accurate power consumption forecasting. The author proposes an interpretation of the complex energy consumption system as a multiple linear regression equation that takes the relationship between factors into consideration and allows to single out the influence of any factor on the power output.

Keywords: power consumption, train traction, power consumption forecasting, multiple regression, correlation coefficient, pair correlation, mathematical model, residual analysis, determination coefficient, Fisher's test