The factorial analysis of the propulsion power demand
Abstract
The factorial analysis of the propulsion power demand
Incoming article date: 20.11.2020Market relationships between energy producers and consumers leads to increased obligations for all market players. The problem of efficient distribution of electricity purchased on a wholesale market becomes relevant in the context of development of competition in the retail market. The prognostics of energy consumptions becomes a valuable criterion for planning the further consumers’ demands, reducing generation and transportation costs. In case of inaccurate forecasts, the company will be forced to buy or sell electrical energy at unfavorable price. The usage of multi-factor mathematical models in the prognostics makes it possible to make a highly accurate power consumption forecasting. The author proposes an interpretation of the complex energy consumption system as a multiple linear regression equation that takes the relationship between factors into consideration and allows to single out the influence of any factor on the power output.
Keywords: power consumption, train traction, power consumption forecasting, multiple regression, correlation coefficient, pair correlation, mathematical model, residual analysis, determination coefficient, Fisher's test